Drone warfare in Ukraine: drone pilots are running out of targets

According to Ukrainian estimates, the Russian armed forces have lost more than 1.3 million men since the start of the war – the losses of the Russian armed forces in the Ukraine war remain enormous, and in drone warfare unmanned systems play a central role. At the beginning of 2026, Kyiv even set the goal of taking out up to 50,000 Russian soldiers a month. On the battlefield, however, the picture is more nuanced.

In 2026, Russia is currently losing more than 30,000 soldiers a month on average, said Colonel Joby Rimmer, British Senior Military Advisor, on 29 April. For 2025, Western assessments put the losses at around 420,000, an average of about 35,000 a month – less than the Ukrainian armed forces had aimed for.

Too few targets in drone warfare

An insider from Ukraine has now come forward with a surprising explanation. In a Facebook post on 30 April, Sergei “Flash” Beskrestnow, adviser to the Ukrainian defence minister, writes:

At the moment, the unmanned units of the Ukrainian armed forces are not meeting their assigned elimination targets: there are drones, but not as many enemies.— Sergei “Flash” Beskrestnow, adviser to the Ukrainian defence minister

What sounds paradoxical at first glance points to a central dynamic of this war. Because losses are high and the Russian forces are increasingly dispersing and adapting their tactics, target density is falling. Even in a battlespace saturated with drones, those who expose themselves less are harder to hit.

At the same time, Beskrestnow stresses that unmanned systems continue to dominate:

The war changed long ago. Any tank or vehicle will last no longer than an hour on the battlefield. Drones will destroy them.— Sergei “Flash” Beskrestnow

The conclusion is therefore clear: Ukraine does not lack drone capacity, but its effectiveness is increasingly running up against the structural limits of the battlefield. Behind the apparent problem lies, in reality, a success – the enemy is adapting because the drones are exerting so much pressure.