Military drones in miniature: “Nobody will survive!”, warns Alexander Kochetkov

The mini drones of the future could consign infantry to the past. Alexander Kochetkov examines the strategic direction of military drones in a recent article for the Ukrainian magazine “Focus”. Kochetkov works as a strategist and political analyst; he was formerly deputy head of the Ukrainian president's press service.

The former designer and developer of missile and space technology sees the future of war in many small, miniaturised drones.

Currently, Kochetkov says, efforts are aimed at longer flight ranges and heavier munition loads, which inevitably makes the drones grow. This, however, reflects the conditions of positional warfare; tactics dictate this direction. Strategically, he expects the opposite: “Drones will take the path that science-fiction authors predicted long ago – through maximum miniaturisation.”

Swarms of military drones carrying poison

Kochetkov outlines one conceivable scenario as follows: “A swarm of these drones is delivered to enemy positions by an artillery shell or a missile, where they hide motionless to save energy”. And further: “Only when a target is detected do they attack, controlled by artificial intelligence (AI). Contact with a human operator exists only indirectly via this AI. Small doses of poison paralyse enemy soldiers for a certain time. A larger dose kills them.”

In the Ukrainian's view, only fully sealed bunkers and combat vehicles, or combat suits modelled on space suits, could offer reliable protection.

Infantry in today's sense will therefore no longer exist in the war of the future, Alexander Kochetkov concludes. “The big secret will be the AI algorithms that control the swarm. They will be military secrets and not simply obtainable through grey imports to circumvent sanctions.”

Who is already working on this strategic perspective for such drones? Kochetkov's answer is unequivocal: “The USA and China”.

He also states the conclusion to be drawn from the development he describes: “It is better to be first than to have to catch up.”