Reconnaissance drones over the Black Sea: Russia intends to act against US drones

The General Staff of the Russian army is to take “rapid response measures” against US reconnaissance drones over the Black Sea. Defence Minister Andrei Belousov issued this instruction, “as their increasing activity raises the likelihood of incidents in the airspace”.

Recently, the US drones have been flying more frequently in international airspace over the Black Sea. At the same time, Ukraine has stepped up its attacks, which are directed mainly against air defence positions on the occupied Crimean peninsula.

Manned reconnaissance flights along the northern Turkish coast are also part of NATO's repertoire. A few days ago, for example, a Royal Air Force RC-135W Rivet Joint escorted by two Eurofighters could be seen on flightradar24. Moscow suspects that Ukraine draws on information from the US reconnaissance aircraft for its attacks.

Shootdown considered taboo in Russia

However, the well-known Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin, aka “Colonelcassad”, rules out shooting down a US drone, as he writes on his Telegram channel. That would be “an act of aggression. With all the consequences”, Rozhin argues, asking: “Are you ready for general mobilisation, empty shop shelves, a collapsed internet and queues for petrol at the filling station lasting for days?”

Instead, Rozhin expects the Russian Aerospace Forces to try to exert “unarmed influence” on the US drones. Known disruptive measures include close fly-bys that create severe turbulence, or dumping kerosene into the drones' flight path.

The US Air Force describes such flights as “unsafe and unprofessional manoeuvres”. The most recent such incident occurred on 14 March 2023 in international airspace and involved a US Air Force MQ-9 drone.

Reconnaissance drones at high altitude are difficult to disrupt

Such action would be considerably more difficult against the RQ-4 Global Hawk and the MQ-4 Triton, which depart from Sigonella, Sicily, on their reconnaissance missions over the Black Sea. They fly at an altitude of 56,000 feet (17,000 metres). Fighter aircraft capable of flying that high do exist – but at this altitude any aircraft has only limited manoeuvrability. Because the air there is thin, the risk of a stall rises enormously, not only on the wings and control surfaces but also in the engine.

“fighterbomber”, another well-known Russian military channel, also considers the risk of accidents to be extremely high. Rescue ships would therefore be needed in the area of operations – presumably also to recover any drones that might crash.

????Update: Report that a Russian MiG-31 fighter jet shot down the US RQ-4B Global Hawk over the Black Sea near Crimea where the US surveillance drone was providing targeting information to NATO missiles in Ukraine!! pic.twitter.com/SQemDNP00X

Early last week, Russian propaganda channels reported that a Russian MiG-31 fighter had shot down an RQ-4B Global Hawk over the Black Sea. This turned out to be clearly false: after the mission, the drone was observed landing in Sigonella.