Drone war in Ukraine: Magyar expects a “truly unmanned war” within six to eight months

One of the most important figures of the modern drone war took the stage a few days ago at the Yalta European Strategy (YES) Forum. He was asked for his view of his own unit, of the ongoing war in Ukraine and of developments in the near future. To anticipate the conclusion: Magyar predicts rapid technological progress for drone technology.

Friend and foe know Robert Yosypovych Brovdi mainly as Magyar (also Madyar/Мадяр). He commands the 414th Separate Unmanned Aircraft Systems Strike Regiment, which belongs to the Marine Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and is known for short as “Birds of Madyar”.

The story began in April 2022 near Kherson, where twelve men from a rifle unit tried out civilian drones. Within two and a half years this gradually grew into something bigger – first an unmanned aerial vehicle platoon within a company, then a company, a battalion, a separate battalion and today, finally, a separate regiment. It now comprises around 400 active soldiers, only some of them combat pilots, as well as 600 recruits.

Those who do not fly drones themselves support the unit with a broad range of services: the unit produces its own munitions and electric detonators, including assembly, and the drones are adapted and improved. In addition, there are home-built electronic warfare (EW) systems, up to and including electronic reconnaissance systems. Every single soldier also receives a personal spectrum analyser and all the equipment needed to save lives – because personnel are the unit's most important asset.

According to Magyar, Ukraine today builds the world's best unmanned aerial vehicles. This is due to their direct use in combat: every new challenge, every need for modernisation triggers an immediate response. Nevertheless, the country is working with exactly the same means as its opponent, since both sides are developing in parallel. That is unlikely to last much longer, Magyar believes: within a month and a half, the effects of China restricting the supply of drone components will be felt.

What the drone war costs

On costs, Magyar resorts to stark comparisons. He knows of no manufacturer outside Ukraine that can produce 300 to 500 fixed-wing drones month after month – with a penetration depth of up to 900 kilometres into enemy territory, 60 kilograms or more of explosives on board and a price of only 50,000 euros each.

Western partners supply Ukraine with 82-millimetre mortar rounds at 1,100 to 1,300 euros apiece. By comparison, a five-kilogram anti-tank mine that the regiment now builds itself, and that can destroy any enemy vehicle, costs around 55 euros. More than half of that amount is accounted for by Chinese electronic components – but Ukraine will soon produce them itself, for about seven euros.

“the technology is advancing so fast that, in my assessment, this already unmanned war will become a truly unmanned war within the next six to eight months.”— Magyar

Two messages to the partners

In the conversation, Magyar also addressed two messages to Ukraine's partners. He phrased the first as follows: “The first is that, given the rapid development of unmanned aerial vehicles, which today account for 50 percent of all strike activity in this war, the technology will advance so fast that, in my assessment, this already unmanned war will become a truly unmanned war within the next six to eight months”. And further: “Hundreds of systems with artificial intelligence are being developed simultaneously, without pilots being involved.”

In concrete terms, this means for Magyar: “In six months, no pilots will be needed any more. We will need people who simply lift the drone one metre off the ground. And then, depending on its development, the drone will decide what it hits, how it tells a ‘Zhiguli’ (vehicle range of carmaker AvtoVAZ) apart from a tank, but it will certainly not be able to distinguish a Ukrainian from an enemy.” From this he concludes: “These challenges must be taken very seriously, and we must invest in technologies in which Ukraine has the highest competence.”

The second message is a promise to the West: “At the cost of human lives, experience and years of fighting, the entire reasonable world community that supports Ukraine is receiving a practically free forge of specialists who will tomorrow go to all their countries and train their armies, because many wars still lie ahead. And this will be an element of our practical gratitude for their help in our fight for our freedom, for our country, for our families.”

Background: Yalta European Strategy (YES) sees itself as the leading platform for discussing Ukraine's European future in a global context. The forum promotes new ideas, connects the country with international partners, strengthens the forces of change there and builds networks of supporters for a new Ukraine around the globe.