Military drones in the Ukraine war: twelve lessons from a study for the Australian Army Research Centre

Oleksandra Molloy has derived twelve lessons about military drones from the war in Ukraine and prepared them for the Australian Army Research Centre. The Senior Lecturer in Aviation at the University of New South Wales summarises them in her paper “Drones in Modern Warfare: Lessons Learnt from the War in Ukraine”.

Lesson 1: drones are shaping a new kind of warfare

One of the key findings of the war is how important cheap and ubiquitous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) have become for warfare – tactically as well as operationally. Ukraine, like Russia, uses drones for a wide variety of tasks: from gathering real-time imagery and intelligence to kamikaze attacks and long-range strikes.

Lesson 2: more autonomy for UAV

Today, military institutions align tactics, training and command models with humans; the machines remain under close human control. According to the study, this will soon change. Unmanned systems will then act increasingly independently and work together with humans instead of merely serving as tools.

Lesson 3: small drones are spreading ever further

The war in Ukraine clearly shows how decisive small drone systems are. Large military drones such as the Bayraktar TB2 lose effectiveness as soon as the enemy succeeds in integrating air defence and electronic warfare (EW) systems. These large platforms are more vulnerable to long-range air defence and electronic jamming; without air superiority, they can therefore only be used to a very limited extent. In addition, they are expensive, difficult to replace and do not cover every area of operations.

Small drones are quite different: with them, a single soldier can gather information, reconnoitre targets and coordinate attacks – tasks that would otherwise require larger teams. Because they cost less, are harder to detect and easier to replace, they are now regarded as an indispensable tool of modern conflict.

Lesson 4: UAV can save lives – and have done so

Rather than replacing humans on the battlefield entirely, military drones complement them and take over dangerous tasks. This reduces the risk to soldiers and helps protect human lives. Their endurance is superior to that of humans: drones know no fatigue and can remain in action longer. Across different missions, they thus deliver the consistent, reliable performance that modern conflicts demand.

Lesson 5: employment in all domains

Whether in the air, on land or at sea: in Ukraine, military drones have proved to be a decisive advantage. They achieve operational successes over long distances with relatively little money and minimal logistical effort. Because they can reconnoitre further and more precisely, they give both sides tactical advantages and save considerable costs.

Ukraine can no longer do without drones, neither in defence nor in attack. They provide important information, reconnoitre targets precisely and reduce the danger to soldiers – making the military more effective.

Lesson 6: counter-drone measures in flux

Because unmanned systems are constantly being developed further, countermeasures are also going through a dynamic innovation cycle. Initially, the main aim was to shoot down a UAV in flight. The strategy is now broader: preventing the launch by attacking the components on the ground is also effective.

To this end, ground stations are located visually or electronically and then engaged in a targeted manner with artillery or drones. In this way, the effect of unmanned systems is reduced even before they can accomplish their missions. At the same time, this shows how versatile and flexible today’s defence strategies must be.

Lesson 7: for financial reasons, there is no way around drones

Because military drones cost little and are easy to deploy, even actors with scarce resources achieve a disproportionately large effect. Their cost advantage makes them a compelling alternative to conventional military systems. They make it possible to pursue strategies that impose a heavy financial burden on the enemy through the costs involved.

Low operating costs pay off particularly in protracted conflicts: a strategy is all the more sustainable the fewer resources are needed to destroy a target.

Lesson 8: innovation in ever shorter cycles

Because warfare in Ukraine is evolving rapidly, innovation must also become faster; a cycle currently lasts between one week and around three months. To stay ahead of the enemy, new solutions or significant changes to existing technology are continuously needed.

Lesson 9: constant adaptation in a race of adaptations

The battlefield in Ukraine is changing fast. What worked well in the first six months of the war no longer works today. Platforms must therefore be developed further on an ongoing basis, as must the tactics by which they are employed.

Lesson 10: training is indispensable

According to Colonel Vadim Sukharevskyi, commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, numerous videos on social media show Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) drones destroying Russian military vehicles. Despite these successes, however, the effect is not the same everywhere along the front. Reasons for this could be differing access to equipment, the quality of training and the performance of individual UAV units.

It follows that with every additional UAV for the Ukrainian armed forces, the army’s need for pilots with the skills required to fly these drones and use them successfully against the Russian forces also grows.

Lesson 11: research, development and investment in sovereign capabilities are becoming more important

Because modern warfare in Ukraine is evolving so rapidly, ongoing research and development of new solutions is gaining in importance, as is the build-up of sovereign capabilities. The Ukrainian government has done a great deal to bring arms production into the country and to invest in domestic capacity. The focus is on innovation in key technological fields and on faster development and delivery of defence equipment to the front.

Lesson 12: military drones as a core element of modern warfare

Unmanned systems of varying complexity, autonomy and purpose are now an essential part of modern warfare – as the war in Ukraine demonstrates. When successfully integrated into combat tactics and part of a mature concept of operations, drones can clearly give inferior armies asymmetric advantages and provide cost-efficient, sophisticated reconnaissance and strike capabilities.

Looking ahead

The conflict in Ukraine impressively demonstrates how central unmanned systems already are to modern warfare. They will spread even further on battlefields worldwide. Robotic and autonomous systems are being continually modernised, existing technologies developed further and new innovations introduced.

Over time, unmanned vessels are likely to gain the upper hand over conventional warships, especially in enclosed or semi-enclosed waters such as the Black Sea or the Mediterranean. This reveals a clear trend: the future of warfare belongs to unmanned systems, and they will lastingly change strategies at sea and on land.

At the end of her paper on military drones, the author makes eleven recommendations. The last and at the same time most important is to make continuous use of the lessons from the war in Ukraine.