Counter-drone defence and the missile dilemma: why expensive interceptors cannot stop the drone flood

A piece of wreckage in a tomato field, marked “AIM-120C-7”, captures the current state of air and counter-drone defence like few other images. It was found after Russian Gerbera drones had been shot down over Poland.

Russia produces hundreds of Geran-2 and Gerbera drones every day. A Gerbera costs around 10,000 euros, a Geran-2 between 30,000 and 50,000 euros. Raytheon built only around 1,400 AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles last year, at a unit price of about 1.5 million euros.

Two things follow from this: the number of drones produced exceeds that of interceptor missiles by a factor of 100 to 150, and at the same time each missile costs 100 to 150 times as much as the target it is used against. No great arithmetic is needed to see that such a defence model is unsustainable.

Ukraine: a battle of remotely guided weapons

To be clear: NATO and/or Ukraine are not the only ones struggling with this imbalance. Russia and potentially all other armed forces face the same dilemma: fending off huge numbers of flying stand-off weapons with expensive missiles that are available only in limited numbers.

In future conflicts, anyone able to strike such targets will therefore very quickly make the origin of these attack drones – their factories – a priority target.

Ukrainian FPV interceptors are now actively hunting down larger Russian drones, seen here destroying a pair of Forpost-R medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) UAVs.
Ukrainian interceptors continue to severely degrade Russian UAV coverage. pic.twitter.com/uwDVHuQ7Mh

Ukraine recognised this development two years ago and began developing new means of defence. Growing numbers of Russian reconnaissance and attack drones had heavily depleted stocks of air defence missiles of all kinds. Interceptor drones proved to be the solution: a pilot controls them remotely and either rams the target or detonates a charge close to it. An interceptor drone costs in the low to mid four-digit euro range.

Interceptor drones in demand

According to the Kyiv Independent, several EU and NATO states are now enquiring about these drone interceptors, namely Poland, Germany, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

Ukrainian FPV interceptor in action. 0:08 pic.twitter.com/IcDppN8yY6

Both the military and the defence industry are looking for solutions for the gap between long-range high-performance missiles and short-range defence systems, which are mostly rapid-fire anti-aircraft guns.

How interceptor drones can be integrated efficiently, quickly and effectively into the inventory of air defence networks is a question for specialists. That little time remains is shown by the Ukrainian operation “Spider Web” against Russian bombers deep in the hinterland. Drones can become a threat practically anywhere and at any time. They need not be launched from beyond the border – it can happen right outside the barracks gate.

Nothing better than an evening testing Interceptor Drones! ????
Help us take out russian aviation here: https://t.co/dF3rNk0bQw. $600 vs $120K recon drones, I know what returns a 20:1 for ???????????? pic.twitter.com/8Yqh1jZy9B

The US Air Force, meanwhile, has ordered tens of thousands of “low-cost missiles” of the APKWS type. The latest generation of the Hydra 70 is neither particularly agile nor especially long-ranged, and it also requires laser target illumination. A good pilot can, however, offset these weaknesses and shoot down drones in larger numbers. In terms of availability and price, APKWS performs considerably better than high-performance air defence missiles.

Counter-drone defence to come faster

On the domestic front in Austria, Defence Minister Klaudia Tanner is increasing the pressure: “Austria and the European states must become capable of defence more quickly,” the minister said.

Austria has directed the first funds from the “Aufbauplan 2032+” (Build-up Plan 2032+) primarily into short-range defence. Orders went to modernising systems for which equipment and personnel already existed.

First came the almost fully expended Mistral missiles: several hundred missiles of the latest Mistral-3 generation were ordered, along with a modernisation of the optical sighting system. In December 2023 came the award of the contract for the fundamental overhaul of the 35-millimetre twin anti-aircraft guns.
Most recently, in February 2024, a major procurement of wheeled armoured vehicles added the procurement of 36 Pandur Evolution with Skyranger air defence systems.

Budgetary reality is currently slowing down larger orders. Priced into the “Aufbauplan 2032+” are both the desired, weapon-capable M-346FA jet trainer, which is also fast enough for counter-drone defence, and the medium-range air defence system.

The Bundesheer can only order what must be paid for in future once it is clear whether budget funds for 2027 and the following years will be released. The defence spokespersons of all parties have agreed to a “joint effort” to implement the “Aufbauplan 2032+” – but the decision rests with Finance Minister Markus Marterbauer.