MQ-9 Reaper: Iran war costs US forces around a quarter of their fleet

At least 45 MQ-9 Reapers have been lost since the start of the war against Iran. This was reported by the Washington Post, citing several US officials familiar with internal Pentagon data. That amounts to around a quarter of the US Air Force and US Marine Corps fleet, which originally comprised some 185 drones. The war is evidently taking a heavy toll on the materiel stocks of the US Armed Forces.

The MQ-9s built by General Atomics are being used particularly intensively around the strategically important Strait of Hormuz – for surveillance as well as for strikes. Yet it is precisely there that their vulnerability shows: for Iranian forces and allied groups in the region, the comparatively slow drones are evidently a worthwhile target.

According to the Washington Post, however, not all MQ-9s were shot down. Some crashed after the link between drone and operators was lost. The Pentagon declined to comment on the figures to the newspaper.

The losses are also significant in financial terms. The US Air Force puts the value of an MQ-9 – depending on sensors and armament – at 30 to 50 million US dollars (around 26 to 43 million euros). By the Washington Post's calculation, losses for this weapon system alone could therefore add up to more than 1.3 billion US dollars (around 1.1 billion euros).

Not just the MQ-9 Reaper: other stocks are shrinking too

According to the report, the MQ-9 losses are only one part of a bigger problem. In the first month of the Iran war alone, the USA is said to have used more than 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles and over 1,000 Patriot and THAAD interceptors. In addition, years of arms deliveries to Ukraine are weighing on American stocks.

This is particularly evident with complex air defence systems. An analysis by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) puts the maximum production rate for THAAD interceptors at currently just 96 a year. This contrasts with the Pentagon's plans: 857 in the coming fiscal year and almost 2,600 missiles in total over the next five years.

Washington therefore intends to invest billions to replenish stocks and expand the defence industry's production capacity. In Congress, the Trump administration is lobbying for an additional package of 67 billion US dollars (around 58 billion euros) to fund the Iran war and the replenishment of arsenals.

For the MQ-9, another factor comes into play: the Pentagon already plans to retire the Reaper gradually. It is to be replaced by cheaper armed reconnaissance drones that can also be deployed in larger numbers and in swarms.

The heavy losses in the Iran war could now accelerate this transition further. At the same time, they underline another lesson of modern warfare: in contested airspace, even capable and expensive unmanned systems are consumables.